Brett and Margo have each thought about murdering their rich Uncle Basil in hopes of claiming their inheritance a bit early. Hoping to take advantage of Basil’s predilection for immoderate desserts, Brett has put rat poison into the cherries flambé; Margo, unaware of Brett’s activities, has laced the chocolate mousse with cyanide. Given the amounts likely to be eaten, the probability of the rat poison being fatal is 0.60; the cyanide, 0.90. Based on other dinners where Basil was presented with the same dessert options, we can assume that he has a 50% chance of asking for the cherries flambé, a 40% chance of ordering the chocolate mousse, and a 10% chance of skipping dessert altogether. No sooner are the dishes cleared away than Basil drops dead. In the absence of any other evidence, who should be considered the prime suspect?
Brett and Margo have each thought about murdering their rich